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JANUARY 28,  2011

A WARNING FROM THE MIDEAST – AT 7:36 P.M. ET:  My well-informed friend, Banafshez Zand-Bonazzi, refers us to an excellent piece in today's New York Times, outlining the Islamic challenge we face in a Middle East now in daily turmoil:

TEHRAN — Hopeful that the protests sweeping Arab lands may create an opening for hard-line Islamic forces, conservatives in Iran are taking deep satisfaction in the events in Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen, where secular leaders have faced large-scale uprisings.

While the government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad confronted its own popular uprising two years ago — and successfully suppressed it — conservatives in Iran said they saw little similarity between those events and the Arab revolts, and instead likened the recent upheavals to Iran’s own 1979 Islamic revolution.

“In my opinion, the Islamic Republic of Iran should see these events without exception in a positive light,” said Mohammad-Javad Larijani, secretary general of the Iranian High Council for Human Rights and one of the most outspoken figures among Iran’s traditional conservatives.

He made it clear that he hoped the “anti-Islamic” government of Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, who was ousted in Tunisia, would be replaced by a “people’s government,” meaning one in which conservative Islamic forces would gain the upper hand, as they did when Iranian people overthrew Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, establishing a quasi theocracy.

On the opposite side are the United States and France, he said, who are “doing everything they can to ride the wave and prevent the people from establishing the regime that they desire.”

France?  Isn't France generally one of the most pro-Muslim countries of Europe?  Shows what appeasement ultimately gets you.

In comments published Friday on the Web site of the semiofficial news agency ISNA, Ayatollah Mesbah-Yazdi, who favors a political system in which elections merely endorse “divinely chosen” clerical leaders, congratulated the people of Tunisia and Egypt, stating that they had acted “based on the principles” of Iran’s Islamic revolution.

COMMENT:  I've been monitoring the news networks today, which are giving heavy coverage to events in Egypt.  What is striking is the expert guests they've depended on:  very few professors in Mideast studies departments of American universities.  Hmm.  How much federal aid goes into those departments every year?  And they really have nothing to say about this convulsion in the Mideast?

And, thankfully, we've heard almost no claims that the "root cause" of the uprising lies in the "Israeli occupation."  Maybe there's a bit of maturity going on.

It's easy to criticize the Obama administration on this, and we're always willing to do that, but the Obamans, like the Bush and Clinton people before them, are caught between the proverbial rock and a hard place.  We want to advance democracy, but we understand that a free election in a part of the world wallowing in the tenth century might bring the fundamentalists to power. 

You may be certain that the Iranians are active behind the scenes, trying to influence the direction of the protests. 

Oh, one really discordant note:  On the very day that the most important Arab country is in flames, the new United States ambassador to Syria presented his credentials in Damascus, rewarding Syria with a new American presence, even though Syria hasn't done a thing to deserve it.  If the Syrian people ever revolt, as the Egyptians are revolting, they'll remember this day.  The Obamans can be faulted for this misstep, an extension of Barack Obama's "outreach" policy, which has been a dismal failure.

January 28, 2011        Permalink

QUOTE OF THE DAY – AT 11:27 A.M. ET:  From a superb piece on the life of Ronald Reagan, by Michael Barone, which I highly commend to you:

"I wasn't a great communicator," said the man who talked his way into college, into radio, into the movies, into politics and into the presidency, "but I communicated great things, and they didn't spring full blown from my brow, they came from the heart of a great nation -- from our experience, our wisdom and our belief in the principles that have guided us for two centuries." The president who voted for more winning presidential candidates than any other president seems to have always regarded himself as a child of destiny, and it turns out he was. But the destiny, he insisted, was not his own but that of the people of the United States of America.

Well said.

January 28, 2011       Permalink

ON THIS DAY – AT 10:14 A.M. ET:  This is the 25th anniversary of the Challenger disaster, which brought home powerfully to Americans that space flight, even decades after we went to the Moon, was still hazardous:

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – For many, no single word evokes as much pain.

Challenger.

A quarter-century later, images of the exploding space shuttle still signify all that can go wrong with technology and the sharpest minds. The accident on Jan. 28, 1986 — a scant 73 seconds into flight, nine miles above the Atlantic for all to see — remains NASA's most visible failure.

It was the world's first high-tech catastrophe to unfold on live TV. Adding to the anguish was the young audience: School children everywhere tuned in that morning to watch the launch of the first schoolteacher and ordinary citizen bound for space, Christa McAuliffe.

She never made it.

McAuliffe and six others on board perished as the cameras rolled, victims of stiff O-ring seals and feeble bureaucratic decisions.

It was, as one grief and trauma expert recalls, "the beginning of the age when the whole world knew what happened as it happened."

"That was kind of our pilot study for all the rest to come, I think. It was so ghastly," said Sally Karioth, a professor in Florida State University's school of nursing.

The crew compartment shot out of the fireball, intact, and continued upward another three miles before plummeting. The free fall lasted more than two minutes. There was no parachute to slow the descent, no escape system whatsoever; NASA had skipped all that in shuttle development. Space travel was considered so ordinary, in fact, that the Challenger seven wore little more than blue coveralls and skimpy motorcycle-type helmets for takeoff.

COMMENT:  The disaster, however, led to one of the finest investigatory commissions we've ever assembled.  The star of the investigation was the eminent physicist and Nobel laureate, Richard Feynman, who taught NASA much about basic science and how it should be approached. 

A quote from Feynman:  "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled."

We might remember that today as we are confronted with all kinds of claims about new energy technologies, and matching claims about climate change.  Nature cannot be fooled.

January 28, 2011       Permalink

SPREADING TO JORDAN – AT 9:35 A.M. ET:  The Tunisian government has been overthrown, Egypt is in flames today, there is unrest in Yemen, Lebanon has essentially come under the control of Hezbollah, and it appears Jordan is joining the list.  From AP:

AMMAN, Jordan — Thousands of Jordanian opposition supporters took to the streets Friday in the country's capital demanding the prime minister step down and venting their anger at rising prices, inflation and unemployment.

It was the third consecutive Friday of protests following Muslim prayers in Jordan, inspired by the unrest in Tunisia and rallies in Egypt demanding the downfall of the country's longtime president.

About 3,500 opposition activists from Jordan's main Islamist opposition group, trade unions and leftist organizations gathered in Amman's downtown, waving colorful banners reading: "Send the corrupt guys to court."

The crowd denounced Jordanian Prime Minister Samir Rifai's unpopular policies. Many shouted: "Rifai go away, prices are on fire and so are the Jordanians."

Another 2,500 people also took to the streets in six other cities across the country after the noon prayers. Those protests also called for Rifai's ouster.

King Abdullah II has promised some reforms, particularly on a controversial election law. But many believe it's unlikely he will bow to demands for popular election of the prime minister and Cabinet officials, traditionally appointed by the king.

COMMENT:  Again, we caution that we don't know how a popular uprising will play out.  Greater democracy, or greater influence for the Mideast nutjobs who are always waiting to take power?

We've never had this many anti-government riots at one time in the Mideast.  Yes, there is potential for good.  But the word "good" and "Mideast" are not normally found together.  We don't draw much encouragement from this:

As they broke into a procession, the demonstrators chanted, "In the name of God, the government must change" and the Muslim holy book "Koran is our constitution, jihad is our path."

Chills, my friends.

January 28, 2011      Permalink

THE IMPORTANCE OF HOME SAFETY – AT 8:33 A.M. ET:  Didn't this person's mother teach her anything?   Reader Brian M. Carey alerts us to a close call in Moscow.  From London's Telegraph:

The unnamed woman, who is thought to be part of the same group that struck Moscow's Domodedovo airport on Monday, intended to detonate a suicide belt on a busy square near Red Square on New Year's Eve in an attack that could have killed hundreds.

Security sources believe a spam message from her mobile phone operator wishing her a happy new year received just hours before the planned attack triggered her suicide belt, killing her but nobody else.
She was at her Moscow safe house at the time getting ready with two accomplices, both of whom survived and were seen fleeing the scene.

Islamist terrorists in Russia often use cheap unused mobile phones as detonators. The bomber's handler, who is usually watching their charge, sends the bomber a text message in order to set off his or her explosive belt at the moment when it is thought they can inflict maximum casualties.

The phones are usually kept switched off until the very last minute but in this case, Russian security sources believe, the terrorists were careless.

COMMENT:  Their carelessness, fortunately, saved many lives.  The terrorists weren't so careless in their Domodedovo airport attack, where they hit their target, with devastating results. 

We can't depend, in the United States, on the enemy's incompetence.  It doesn't last forever.

January 28, 2011      Permalink

EGYPT ON THE BRINK – AT 7:55 A.M. ET:  But the brink of what?  That is the question.  From AP:

CAIRO -- Thousands of Egyptian anti-government protesters clashed Friday with police in Cairo, who fired rubber bullets into the crowds and used tear gas and water cannons to disperse them. It was a major escalation in what was already the biggest challenge to President Hosni Mubarak's 30 year-rule.

Police also used water cannons against Egypt's pro-democracy leader Mohamed ElBaradei and his supporters as they joined the latest wave of protests after noon prayers. Police also used batons to beat some of ElBaradei's supporters, who surrounded him to protect him.

A soaking wet ElBaradei was trapped inside a mosque nearly an hour after him and his supporters were water cannoned. Hundreds of riot police laid siege to the mosque, firing tear gas in the streets surrounding it so no one could leave. The tear gas canisters set several cars ablaze outside the mosque. Several people fainted and suffered burns.

Large groups of protesters, in the thousands, were gathered at at least six venues in Cairo, a city of about 18 million people. They are demanding Mubarak's ouster.

There were smaller protests in Assiut south of Cairo and al-Arish in the Sinai peninsula. Regional television stations were reporting clashes between thousands of demonstrators and police in the Mediterranean port city of Alexandria and Minya south of Cairo.

COMMENT:  There is absolutely no guarantee that this will end well.  The history of the Arab world gives us little comfort.  Too often, "popular" uprisings lead to "democratic" elections in which the worst, most backward elements win, elements who rule less intelligently than the thugs they replace.

Consider Gaza, which democratically elected Hamas, an extremist Palestinian movement that has brought nothing good and driven peace further away.

So we sit tight, waiting for the next step.  The images of riots in Cairo are being flashed all over the Arab world, which seethes with discontent.  The example is being set.  There is already unease and some violence in Yemen. 

We cheer democracy, but let us do it while being aware that there was discontent as well in Germany in the late 1920s.  We know where that led.  History does not repeat itself, but the psychology of history does. 

January 28, 2011     Permalink

JANUARY 27,  2011

BULLETIN – AT 6:29 P.M. ET:  The Illinois Supreme Court, in a unanimous 7-0 decision, has just put Rahm Emanuel back on the ballot as a candidate for mayor of Chicago.  Absentee voting begins Monday.  The election is February 22nd.

Rahm Emanuel can run for mayor, the Illinois Supreme Court has ruled. In a 7 to 0 decision, the court Thursday said an appellate court erred in taking Emanuel off the ballot earlier in the week.

COMMENT:  Good decision.  Voting is the heart of democracy.  To take someone off a ballot because of an extreme interpretation of residency requirements is a very bad thing.  Let the people decide.

This is important nationally because Illinois is a critical state, and the mayor of Chicago wields substantial political clout. 

This will probably help Obama in Illinois, as Emanuel is Obama's man there, but he really doesn't need much help in his home state.  At any rate, we have to call 'em as we see 'em, and this was a wise decision.  No person, of whatever party,  should lose his or her residency when going to Washington to serve in an administration.

January 27, 2011       Permalink

AND NOW THE DETAILS – AT 6:14 P.M. ET:  We can talk about cutting the budget, but we must be careful of what we cut:

OTTAWA, Canada (AP) — Defense Secretary Robert Gates is accusing Congress of dumping what he calls a "crisis on my doorstep" by holding the Pentagon to last year's spending levels.

He said this has the potential to create a $23 billion budget gap this year that could weaken a wartime military.

Gates says it is increasingly likely that Congress will not act on the Pentagon's 2011 budget request — which would have the effect of forcing the Pentagon to make do with last year's amount.

Gates is warning of emergency cuts to make ends meet.

COMMENT:  Gates is one of the grownups in this administration.  When he speaks, we should listen.  Irresponsible cuts in defense only mortgage our future, and bring us back to the pre- World War II days.  Yes, the defense budget must be examined for excess and unneeded acquisitions, but when Bob Gates says he has a problem that could weaken our defenses, responsible people must listen.

January 27, 2011       Permalink

WHAT WAS THAT HE SAID? – AT 9:11 A.M. ET:   President Obama's lavish statement, during the State of the Union speech, that "we've broken the back of this" recession, has come under critical scrutiny.  Eyebrows were raised, right up to the ceiling.  Jim Geraghty of NRO notes why:

In December 2010, nonfarm payroll employment decreased in 35 states and the District of Columbia and increased in 15 states. The largest over-the-month employment decreases were in New York (-22,800), Minnesota (-22,400), Florida (-17,900), and Georgia (-17,500). The largest over-the-month percentage decreases in employment occurred in Minnesota (-0.8 percent), Alabama and Hawaii (-0.7 percent each), and Delaware and Georgia (-0.5 percent each). The largest over-the-month increases in employment occurred in Texas (+20,000) and South Carolina (+9,000). The largest over-the-month percentage increases in employment were in Idaho (+0.6 percent), Montana and South Carolina (+0.5 percent each), and Alaska (+0.4 percent).

That actually reverses a favorable (although small) trend during most of the year.  We are far from out of the woods.

I wasn't surprised to see my state of New York lead the way in employment decreases in December.  New York is now the largest out-migration state in the country.  High taxes.  Poor job prospects.  A state government that is practically bankrupt.  Who could ask for anything more?

January 27, 2011      Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 8:55 A.M. ET: 

From The Politico:  Visiting Iowa for a movie premiere, Nevada Republican Sharron Angle wouldn’t rule out a run for president.  “I’ll just say I have lots of options for the future, and I’m investigating all my options,” Angle said Wednesday when asked whether she was considering a bid for the White House, the Des Moines Register reported.

One option she has, and that she should seriously consider, is shutting up.  Sharron Angle botched a Senate campaign against Harry Reid that had been seen as an easy pickup for our side.  She needs re-training in a secure facility.

January 27, 2011      Permalink

OH DEAR, OH DEAR, GET THE WHITE-OUT...BEFORE THEY NOTICE – AT 8:40 A.M. ET:  It appears that another piece of "climate change" research – you know, that "settled science" – has fallen apart.  From Britain's Telegraph:

Researchers have discovered that contrary to popular belief half of the ice flows in the Karakoram range of the Himalayan mountains are actually growing rather than shrinking.

The discovery adds a new twist to the row over whether global warming is causing the world's highest mountain range to lose its ice cover.

It further challenges claims made in a 2007 report by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that the glaciers would be gone by 2035.

Although the head of the panel Dr Rajendra Pachauri later admitted the claim was an error gleaned from unchecked research, he maintained that global warming was melting the glaciers at "a rapid rate," threatening floods throughout north India.

The new study by scientists at the Universities of California and Potsdam has found that half of the glaciers in the Karakoram range, in the northwestern Himlaya, are in fact advancing and that global warming is not the deciding factor in whether a glacier survives or melts.

COMMENT:  When is this country going to finally establish a blue-ribbon commission, like the Challenger commission, to get to the bottom of this?  The farce has gone on long enough, especially the farce involving data supplied by the UN, that great center of integrity and righteousness.

A commission, made up of experts of unimpeachable reputations, could determine what we know, what we don't know, and what we should know, to make valid choices.  This is long overdue.

Why don't we have such a commission?  I suspect it's because there are powerful interests, with financial stakes, involved in the whole shady enterprise of "climate change."

January 27, 2011       Permalink

DETAILS, DETAILS, WHO NEEDS DETAILS? – AT 8:31 A.M. ET:  There are these little problems with Obamacare.  Why do people bring them up and ruin the party?  From Fox:

WASHINGTON -- Two of the central promises of President Barack Obama's health care overhaul law are unlikely to be fulfilled, Medicare's independent economic expert told Congress on Wednesday.

The landmark legislation probably won't hold costs down, and it won't let everybody keep their current health insurance if they like it, Chief Actuary Richard Foster told the House Budget Committee. His office is responsible for independent long-range cost estimates.

You may be certain that some ultra-libs in the Obama administration are researching the possibility of sending this cat to Guantanamo.  That's the way they did it in Mother Russia, didn't they?

Foster's assessment came a day after Obama in his State of the Union message told lawmakers that he's open to improvements in the law, but unwilling to rehash the health care debate of the past two years. Republicans want to repeal the landmark legislation that provides coverage to more than 30 million people now uninsured, but lack the votes.

Foster was asked by Rep. Tom McClintock, R-Calif., for a simple true or false response on two of the main assertions made by supporters of the law: that it will bring down unsustainable medical costs and will let people keep their current health insurance if they like it.

On the costs issue, "I would say false, more so than true," Foster responded.

As for people getting to keep their coverage, "not true in all cases."

COMMENT:  The truth comes out, drip by drip.  Why couldn't this have been determined before the law was passed?  Now it is up to the Republicans to come up with fixes, get them passed, and take the credit.  That's the way the game is played.

January 27, 2011       Permalink

EGYPT ON THE BRINK – AT 8:08 A.M. ET:  Egypt is the heart of the Arab world, and a key ally (so to speak) of the United States in the Mideast.  But the authoritarian government of Egypt is being threatened by the same kind of unrest that recently toppled the government of Tunisia. 

CAIRO (AP) — Egyptian activists protested for a third day as social networking sites called for a mass rally in the capital Cairo after Friday prayers, keeping up the momentum of the country's largest anti-government protests in years.

The outlawed Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's largest and best organized opposition group, has thrown its support behind the demonstrations and if its significant support base joins Friday demonstrations, it will be a big boost to the grassroots movement calling for the ouster of longtime President Hosni Mubarak.

The protesters could also be energized by the imminent return of Mohammed ElBaradei, a Nobel peace laureate and the country's top pro-democracy advocate. ElBaradei is expected to return Thursday night.

The 82-year-old Mubarak, who has led Egypt for nearly 30 years, has not been seen in public or heard from since the protests began Tuesday with tens of thousands marching in Cairo and a string of other cities. The protesters have vented rage over the government's neglect of poverty, unemployment and rising prices.

The demonstrations pose the most serious challenge to date to Mubarak's authoritarian rule and culminate a steady rise in discontent that had already raised serious questions about how long he can keep his grip on power.

COMMENT:  The United States has issued a lukewarm, pro forma declaration in general support of "rights," but the spread of democracy has never been a priority of this administration.  Lebanon has now slipped under almost complete Hezbollah control, which means Iranian control, and there is rioting in Yemen, a terrorist hotbed.

We seem to have been caught off guard...again.  And of course the old Arabists who hang around Washington and the Middle East "studies" departments of our universities don't have much to say at all. 

We project weakness under Obama, and no one in the Mideast seems to listen to us, or to care at all what we say.

January 27, 2011     Permalink